Teen Birth Rates by County, 2010 and 2015

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This dataset contains estimated teen birth rates for age group 15–19 (expressed per 1,000 females aged 15–19) by county and year. Hierarchical Bayesian space-time models were used to generate hierarchical Bayes estimates of county teen birth rates for each year. Data are provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).


Estimated teen birth rate: Model-based estimates of teen birth rates for age group 15–19 (expressed per 1,000 females aged 15–19) for a specific county and year. These annual county-level teen birth estimates “borrow strength” across counties and years to generate accurate estimates where data are sparse due to small population size. The inferential method uses information—including the estimated teen birth rates from neighboring counties across years and the associated explanatory variables—to provide a stable estimate of the county teen birth rate.


Data on the number of live births for women aged 15–19 years were extracted from the National Center for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) National Vital Statistics System birth data files for years 2003–2020.

Population estimates were extracted from the files containing intercensal and postcensal bridged-race population estimates provided by NCHS. For each year, the July population estimates were used, with the exception of the year of the decennial census, 2010, for which the April estimates were used.

For more information, please visit the CDC NCHS Teen Birth Rates by County web page.